The Wenger hypothesis: How many points to win the English Premier League?

Arsène Wenger (pictured) has been manager of Arsenal Football Club since 1996, making him the longest-standing manager of a current English Premier League (EPL) team. There is no doubt that he knows a thing or two about football that most people don't. Thus, when he made a prediction about the number of points needed to win the EPL this year, the football media listened up.

The 2016 Prediction Games – Part I

Prior to the start of the 2016 Olympic Games, over a dozen different groups around the world published numerical forecasts of how they believed the final medal table would end up – and just like the athletes competing in Rio, these groups came in a variety of shapes and sizes. Predictions were issued by teams of university academics (including one group published in the pages of Significance), by sports experts, by global institutions such as the Wall Street Journal, PWC and Goldman Sachs – and, on the day before the Games began, by our statistical research team at ATASS Sports.

Belgium to win Euro 2016? A Q&A on probabilistic predictions

England fans might have been disappointed to see their football team crash out of the Euro 2016 tournament earlier this week, but they never stood much chance of winning. According to the statisticians at the Norwegian Computing Center (NCC), the probability of England lifting the trophy never got above 5%. Spain is perhaps the biggest surprise: at certain points in the tournament, the probability of the team finishing first was 20% or more.