Cataclysmic predictions of Labour’s annihilation after Scottish independence are overblown

Would the Conservative party benefit from Scottish independence? Would Labour never form a majority government again? As the referendum draws closer, and the polls tighten between the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ camps, a common refrain is that by depriving Labour of its Scottish MPs, a Yes vote would seriously impair its ability to garner a majority in Parliament, and make the formation of Conservative majorities easier.

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The Scottish referendum: maybe yes, maybe no?

Last Tuesday YouGov, hitherto a company that had painted a pessimistic picture of the Yes side’s prospects of winning on September 18, generated considerable excitement by publishing a poll that showed an eight point swing from No to Yes in just a month. Yesterday they went one better by being the first company in the referendum campaign to put the Yes side ahead in an independently commissioned poll.

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Why coalitions may be the new normal in British politics

The decline in Britain’s ‘two-party’ political system is well-documented. In the 1951 general election, the total Conservative-plus-Labour vote was 97%, yet in 2010 it had declined to 65%. The Liberal Democrats (and their predecessor parties, the Liberals and Social Democrats) had, until the 2010 election, been the main beneficiaries of this decline.

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The Scottish referendum: steady increase in support for Yes over last nine months

On Tuesday, July 1, The Times reported a new YouGov poll that showed support for a Yes vote at 39% (once Don’t Knows were excluded). This was one point down from the last YouGov poll two weeks ago, and three points down from a YouGov poll in March. The Times announced, 'Voters are turning their backs on the bid for Scottish independence, according to a dramatic new poll that threatens to leave Alex Salmond’s hopes in tatters.'