Politics

Forecast error: Are polls getting worse at predicting elections?

Written by Timothy Martyn Hill on 07 August 2018.

Voting intention polls appear to have an accuracy problem. The UK House of Lords recently instructed the polling industry “to get its house in order”, citing its failure to predict the outcomes of the 2015 and 2017 general elections and the 2016 “Brexit” referendum. The Lords report stated that: “For each of those events, albeit to varying degrees, the polls ‘called it wrong’.” But is this recent poor performance a temporary blip? Or is it part of a longer term decline in accuracy?

Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics wins a last-minute reprieve

Written by Brian Tarran on 03 July 2018.

Plans to dismantle Puerto Rico’s Institute of Statistics (PRIS) have been altered at the 11th hour, meaning the agency will continue as an independently controlled, government funded entity – at least for the time being.

Senators vote in favour of plan to scrap Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics

Written by Brian Tarran on 09 April 2018.

Puerto Rico's senators have approved a plan to dismantle the island's independent Institute of Statistics (PRIS). The plan will see the institute become part of the government's Department of Economic Development, which would then outsource statistical work to the private sector.

Visualising ages and life trajectories of Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom

Written by Mario Cortina Borja & Julian Stander on 24 January 2018.

Rick Wicklin, over at The DO Loop blog, published an interesting graph showing the ages of US Presidents at the beginning and end of their terms, from George Washington to the current occupant of the White House.¹ Inspired by his analysis, we extracted data ² from Wikipedia on ages of the Prime Ministers (PMs) of the UK – from Robert Walpole in 1721, regarded as the first PM, to the incumbent, Theresa May.

Brexit: Britain has spoken… or has it?

Written by Nicholas Donaldson, Nora Donaldson and Grace Yang on 05 January 2018.

The “Brexit” referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union (EU) took place on 23 June 2016. The result was essentially 52-48 in favour of Leave, as the observed proportion of Leavers was 51.9%. On this basis, statements like “the majority of the UK chose to leave the EU” or “the British people have voted to leave the European Union” or “the will of the British people is…” have pervaded political discourse and newspaper articles since. However, all those statements are untrue or – at best – unproven.