Politics

200 years of Greek independence... and Prime Ministers

Written by Julian Stander, Katerina Tzioli and Mario Cortina Borja on 08 April 2021.

Thursday, 25 March 2021 saw Bicentenary Independence Day celebrations in Greece. Much of present-day Greece was under Ottoman occupation from the mid-15th century, with its identity being partly preserved by the Greek Orthodox Church. Eventually, Greek fighters, who were encouraged by increasing opposition to Ottoman rule, inspired by events associated with the French Revolution and supported financially by exiles, launched an insurrection at the monastery of Agia Lavra in the Peloponnese, where they raised a revolutionary flag on 25 March 1821.

Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting

Written by Timothy Martyn Hill on 22 February 2021.

In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house in the suburbs, two cars, four children and a wife with a long bowl-cut. He also had a gambling habit: a big one. He’d bet £30,000 at 4/9 that the Conservative Party was going to achieve a majority at the 1979 UK General Election.^[0707a] The average price of a house at that time was £19,075.^[0416e] He seemed relaxed when speaking to the interviewer, and later bet more money.

Forecast error: POTUS 2020

Written by Timothy Martyn Hill on 27 October 2020.

An election to the office of President of the United States happens every four years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The next presidential election will take place on 3 November 2020. It is held in extraordinary circumstances, as an incumbent fights for re-election in the middle of a global pandemic.

The US economy: Trump or trend?

Written by James J. Cochran on 14 October 2020.

President Donald Trump and VP Mike Pence

At the 2020 Republican National Convention, Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the United States National Economic Council Larry Kudlow stated that as President Trump took office, he was ”…inheriting a stagnant economy on the front end of recession,” and under the President, “…the economy was rebuilt in three years.” This is consistent with the repeated claims by Trump and members of his administration that they faced a weak economy when Trump took office and had built a strong economy.

The Brexit debate and the prosecutor's fallacy

Written by Gianluca Baio on 11 June 2019.

Politics is, by definition, adversarial. Its systems are designed to bring together people with competing views, so that they might argue over and decide on the “affairs of the cities” – which is the literal translation of the Greek word πολιτικά (Politiká). But, in recent times, politics has felt like it has become more adversarial, more polarised.