Probably maybe: Ice cream variation
The saying goes that “probabilities are counter-intuitive”. A simple problem might appear to have a straightforward answer at first glance, but only do we later learn, through careful explanation, that our intuition has been subverted. Indeed, human intuition is rarely to be trusted when it comes to making probabilistic judgments, especially under time pressure. Even those trained in statistics, like most readers of Significance, can fall prey to cognitive biases when making snap decisions.
By Christoforos Anagnostopoulos and Spiros Doxiadis
Probably maybe: Ice cream variation
The saying goes that “probabilities are counter-intuitive”. A simple problem might appear to have a straightforward answer at first glance, but only do we later learn, through careful explanation, that our intuition has been subverted. Indeed, human intuition is rarely to be trusted when it comes to making probabilistic judgments, especially under time pressure. Even those trained in statistics, like most readers of Significance, can fall prey to cognitive biases when making snap decisions.
By Christoforos Anagnostopoulos and Spiros Doxiadis
Preventing cancer: mere rhetoric or a promising plan?
In December 1971, two years after the successful Apollo 11 moon landing, US President Richard Nixon launched a “war on cancer” with the signing of the National Cancer Act. ...
By Mats Julius Stensrud and Morten Valberg
The 2019 Statistical Excellence Award for Early-Career Writing is open for entries
Are you an early-career statistician with a statistical story to tell? If so, we invite you to enter the 2019 Statistical Excellence Award for Early-Career Writing. The competition is jointly...
By Brian Tarran
Preventing cancer: mere rhetoric or a promising plan?
In December 1971, two years after the successful Apollo 11 moon landing, US President Richard Nixon launched a “war on cancer” with the signing of the National Cancer Act. Since that time, billions of dollars and thousands of careers have been devoted to finding ways to prevent or cure the disease. But the fight is not yet over.
By Mats Julius Stensrud and Morten Valberg
The 2019 Statistical Excellence Award for Early-Career Writing is open for entries
Are you an early-career statistician with a statistical story to tell? If so, we invite you to enter the 2019 Statistical Excellence Award for Early-Career Writing. The competition is jointly organised by Significance and the Young Statisticians Section of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) and forms part of the RSS Statistical Excellence Awards programme.
By Brian Tarran
Six Nations rugby: increased predictability (despite England upsets)
With the Six Nations rugby championship kicking off this weekend, we have two years of results to add to our understanding of the competition, following my 2017 article, “6 Nations Rugby - who’s the biggest overachiever?”. The six nations involved are England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales. We will look for recent changes in the ratings-based predictability of the teams in general and for recent changes in the distribution of upsets in particular, when ratings-based predictions proved to be wrong.
By Ray Stefani
Six Nations rugby: increased predictability (despite England upsets)
With the Six Nations rugby championship kicking off this weekend, we have two years of results to add to our understanding of the competition, following my 2017 article, “6 Nations Rugby - who’s the biggest overachiever?”. The six nations involved are England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales. We will look for recent changes in the ratings-based predictability of the teams in general and for recent changes in the distribution of upsets in particular, when ratings-based predictions proved to be wrong.
By Ray Stefani
