Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting
In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house in the suburbs, two cars, four children and a wife with a long bowl-cut. He also had a gambling habit: a big one. He’d bet £30,000 at 4/9 that the Conservative Party was going to achieve a majority at the 1979 UK General Election.[0707a] The average price of a house at that time was £19,075.[0416e] He seemed relaxed when speaking to the interviewer, and later bet more money.
By Timothy Martyn Hill
Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting
In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house in the suburbs, two cars, four children and a wife with a long bowl-cut. He also had a gambling habit: a big one. He’d bet £30,000 at 4/9 that the Conservative Party was going to achieve a majority at the 1979 UK General Election.[0707a] The average price of a house at that time was £19,075.[0416e] He seemed relaxed when speaking to the interviewer, and later bet more money.
By Timothy Martyn Hill
We need a randomized study of the UK’s decision to defer second doses of the mRNA vaccine
Just a few days before the UK began its roll-out of a second Covid-19 vaccine, the decision was made to defer second doses of both vaccines to 12 weeks in...
By Sheila M. Bird
Vaccine rollouts, school testing and contact tracing could all be improved – here’s how
A bitter lesson of the past month is that viruses move fast. The good news of the deployment of the first Covid-19 vaccines was accompanied by the bad news that...
By Sylvia Richardson
We need a randomized study of the UK’s decision to defer second doses of the mRNA vaccine
Just a few days before the UK began its roll-out of a second Covid-19 vaccine, the decision was made to defer second doses of both vaccines to 12 weeks in order to maximize the number of citizens in “priority groups” who would receive a first dose by mid-February 2021. This decision departed radically from the trialled inter-dose interval of 3 weeks for the Pfizer/BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine, the world’s first mRNA vaccine, and so is immunologically heroic.
By Sheila M. Bird
Vaccine rollouts, school testing and contact tracing could all be improved – here’s how
A bitter lesson of the past month is that viruses move fast. The good news of the deployment of the first Covid-19 vaccines was accompanied by the bad news that a new variant of the virus had emerged, quickening the disease’s spread and pushing up the number of patients treated in hospital.
By Sylvia Richardson
Enter our 2021 writing competition for early-career statisticians and data scientists
Data took centre stage in 2020 as the world was gripped by the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, and with the pandemic still raging, we want to shine a spotlight on data stories from around the globe. So, we are pleased to once again be organising the Statistical Excellence Award for Early-Career Writing, in partnership with the Young Statisticians Section of the Royal Statistical Society.
By Brian Tarran
Enter our 2021 writing competition for early-career statisticians and data scientists
Data took centre stage in 2020 as the world was gripped by the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, and with the pandemic still raging, we want to shine a spotlight on data stories from around the globe. So, we are pleased to once again be organising the Statistical Excellence Award for Early-Career Writing, in partnership with the Young Statisticians Section of the Royal Statistical Society.
By Brian Tarran
