Campaign pollstersPolitics

Forecast error: 2022 French presidential election predictors

In 2022 Emmanuel Macron, the President of the French Republic, sought re-election against opponents of various political persuasions. The challenge for Macron was to win another five-year term against a background of post-Brexit readjustment and the Ukraine crisis. The challenge for me, as the author of this article, was to see whether techniques adapted to Anglo-American partisan elections (see here and here) would cope with a Francophone election with different traditions.

By Timothy Martyn Hill

Campaign pollstersPolitics

Forecast error: 2022 French presidential election predictors

In 2022 Emmanuel Macron, the President of the French Republic, sought re-election against opponents of various political persuasions. The challenge for Macron was to win another five-year term against a background of post-Brexit readjustment and the Ukraine crisis. The challenge for me, as the author of this article, was to see whether techniques adapted to Anglo-American partisan elections (see here and here) would cope with a Francophone election with different traditions.

  By Timothy Martyn Hill

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Women of Significance?

Significance bills itself as “a magazine about statistics and data science, written by experts for everyone”. But too few of its featured experts are women, as an analysis by Karen...

By Anna Britten

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Meet the new editor of Significance: Anna Britten

As Significance editor Brian Tarran moves on after eight years and 47 issues, there's a new face at the top of the masthead. Anna Britten joins Significanceafter two decades...

By Brian Tarran

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Women of Significance?

Significance bills itself as “a magazine about statistics and data science, written by experts for everyone”. But too few of its featured experts are women, as an analysis by Karen Lamb, Jessica Kasza, Sophie Calabretto, Rushani Wijesuriya and Linda McIver shows.

  By Anna Britten

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Meet the new editor of Significance: Anna Britten

As Significance editor Brian Tarran moves on after eight years and 47 issues, there's a new face at the top of the masthead. Anna Britten joins Significance after two decades in journalism and magazine editing, having started out as a music critic. In our June issue Q&A, Anna tells us more about her experiences and interests.

  By Brian Tarran

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2022 Early Career Writing Award: And the winner is...

Rule changes in baseball are the focus of the winning article in the 2022 Statistical Excellence Award for Early Career Writing. 'Baseball’s Natural Experiment' by Lee Kennedy-Shaffer explores the challenges facing Major League Baseball (MLB) in its 2020 season and the rules it introduced to restrict game length. Using the difference in differences (DiD) design method for estimating causal effects from natural experiments, it has useful lessons for the governing bodies of all sports.

  By Anna Britten

Resizedbrandon Mowinkel 3 Jwpjwq6Ci Unsplash

 

News

2022 Early Career Writing Award: And the winner is...

Rule changes in baseball are the focus of the winning article in the 2022 Statistical Excellence Award for Early Career Writing. 'Baseball’s Natural Experiment' by Lee Kennedy-Shaffer explores the challenges facing Major League Baseball (MLB) in its 2020 season and the rules it introduced to restrict game length. Using the difference in differences (DiD) design method for estimating causal effects from natural experiments, it has useful lessons for the governing bodies of all sports.

By Anna Britten

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